tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post4216388673178926761..comments2024-03-28T09:19:27.451+00:00Comments on RevK<sup>®</sup>'s ramblings: Everyone is entitled to their opinionRevKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12369263214193333422noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-44934390803975596902014-12-12T10:19:31.826+00:002014-12-12T10:19:31.826+00:00Some good points...Some good points...RevKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12369263214193333422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-3765834251163566612014-12-12T10:15:36.994+00:002014-12-12T10:15:36.994+00:00Adrian, I have to dispute a couple of points here....Adrian, I have to dispute a couple of points here. Firstly, I think everyone _is_ entitled to their opinion, even if it's wrong on something that's a matter of fact. They are not, however, entitled to use the phrase "Everyone's entitled to their own opinion" as an argument about something that's not a matter of opinion.<br /><br />The bigger point that I wanted to make was about making decisions based on partial information. It is not helpful to say that the "right" decision is the one which post-hoc had the best outcome, since that's not the circumstances under which you're having to make the decision. The "right" or "best" decision, is the one with the highest expected result a priori. As an example, I play a lot of Bridge. This is a card game where you have to make decisions on how to play based on partial information. Some times you have more information than others and some times you can generate more information before you have to commit to one line of play or another. The "right" line is the one that has the best expected result, even if on this particular lay of the cards it fails. This is because you're trying to maximise your long-term outcomes.<br /><br />The reason it's important to look at the 'right' decision a priori is because using the actual outcome this time tells you nothing about how to behave in similar situations in the future. Tying it to your Lottery example, I would say that (as much as anything is right), picking the least popular set is the right decision _even if 12345 is the actual result on the night_.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16014718581351233066noreply@blogger.com