tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post6877089089430623426..comments2024-03-28T09:19:27.451+00:00Comments on RevK<sup>®</sup>'s ramblings: BrexitRevKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12369263214193333422noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-50704715748714202742019-10-03T12:23:48.300+01:002019-10-03T12:23:48.300+01:00on the subject of immigration it is already contro...on the subject of immigration it is already controlled.<br />We can decide on our own on if we let in non EU migrants.<br />EU migrants are largely a net gain to the economy. Get rid of them and the NHS collapses overnight and on top of that expect a significant contraction to GDP with one of the biggest recessions the country has ever felt in its history.<br /><br />The problems that lead people to blame immigrants are a governance problem, not an immigration problem, when a population grows new infrastructure should be built, new roads, schools, houses, hospitals etc. This isnt happening at the right pace and its led to problems, but that problem is down to governance not immigration. We would still have waiting times at GPs, poor areas, housing capacity issues etc. even with no immigration as the population still grows without immigration, people have children, and since we would have a massively reduced GDP then investment in new infrastructure would be even lower so the same problems would exist.chrcolukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01922782032112968876noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-53019961989893619412019-10-03T12:13:41.378+01:002019-10-03T12:13:41.378+01:00You agree with most of my thoughts.
I will start ...You agree with most of my thoughts.<br /><br />I will start to say I voted leave, however it was a protest vote, and I never thought the country as a whole would be so stupid to vote leave, however they did. If there was a new referendum I would be one of those who voted leave who will vote remain. My dad was the same, the call we spoke about it afterwards we were both in shock at the result.<br /><br />In the modern world, trade is king, it used to be wars, now its trade, if we stay in the EU we do better trade. Not only within the EU but also outside of the EU as the EU has good trade agreements with much of the world, its the largest trading bloc in the world, larger than america.<br /><br />Now of course the americans are all over this as they see an opportunity to profit, any trade agreement with them will be so lopsided it will be like have 3 obese children on one end of the seesaw and a cat on the other. We will be signing off our health service to them, relaxing laws for them, and probably more military obligations as well.<br /><br />In terms of the weekly cost to the EU, our net cost is about 200m, half of the 400m boris claims, for that we get a bigger economy, GDP is higher, I expect in the long term the damage to GDP will be as much as we contribute, and we wont gain anything at all. <br /><br />Cost of living will skyrocket, the fact alone we will have customs slowing down haulage will be an issue, never mind trade tariffs.<br /><br />Less international entities will setup in the UK as we will no longer be an option as a EU hub.<br /><br />The ultimate problem is we have a unregulated press which has been allowed to brainwash the public, so many people think we still the good old british empire with the same level of influence and power as we had in the 1800s. Instead we a tiny island next to the EU mainland, that is the reality. So many UK originated companies as well either been sold or going into liquidation. The country is one of the richest countries in the world but its not a powerhouse anymore and people need to realise that.chrcolukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01922782032112968876noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-31957392686143361322019-10-01T21:51:19.507+01:002019-10-01T21:51:19.507+01:00"It seems counter intuitive to be isolationis..."It seems counter intuitive to be isolationist, and then still want to trade with the world."<br /><br />That doesn't make sense. The European Union countries are not the world and it is the european union that attempts to isolate itself from the world.Alan Cliffordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07203284236816302240noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-85378798999434170512019-10-01T17:37:37.788+01:002019-10-01T17:37:37.788+01:00RevK, it seems you are mostly focussed on the econ...RevK, it seems you are mostly focussed on the economic consequences of Brexit, which certainly makes sense as a small business owner. But I think the mistake many Remain supporters make is to assume that all *anyone* cares about (or should care about) is the economy, which therefore makes Brexit obviously self-destructive and irrational because it probably doesn't have any significant economic benefits. However, people have many other reasons for voting for things besides economic predictions.<br /><br />In general, democracy works best when representatives are connected with their voters, the ratio of voters to representatives is small, and voters are able to engage with and influence the process in a meaningful way. It works worst when voters and representatives are disconnected, the ratio of voters to representatives is large, and people have little ability to influence the process. In Westminster we have 650 MPs representing 66 million people (about 100k voters per MP); in the EU we have 72 MEPs representing that same population (900k voters per MEP), and these MEPs only vote on legislation; proposing new laws is done by the EU Commission whom we don't get to vote for at all.<br /><br />Let's say we are going to have a vote on what to eat for dinner. Would you rather vote alongside six of your close friends, with similar tastes to yourself, or alongside a million people randomly chosen from the world population? Probably you would choose the first option, because you would have a large influence over the process, and even if the vote didn't go your way, it's likely that the ultimate choice would still be acceptable to you. But what we get with the EU is something closer to the second option: a bunch of one-size-fits-all choices imposed upon a huge, diverse population with no common language or culture, and where individual voters have so little influence that they might as well be disenfranchised entirely.<br /><br />Of course it is not correct to say that everything that comes of out Westminster is good law (Malicious Communications Act anyone?) or that everything that the EU does is bad. Nor is it correct to say that the EU is "undemocratic", because elected representatives do have a significant level of influence. But if the people of the UK don't like what Westminster is doing, we at least have some power to change the situation. If we don't like the laws that are imposed on us from the EU, it's basically tough shit unless we can convince a few other large countries to agree with us.<br />InfiniteDissenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00463076301051295104noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-6109240213825487562019-09-30T17:49:02.167+01:002019-09-30T17:49:02.167+01:001. Spending more but saving on benefits, getting t...1. Spending more but saving on benefits, getting tax revenue from the workers, corporation tax from the companies, VAT receipts. We also gain in morale and pride in our country.<br />2. We can decide who we trade with and under what terms. Set our own laws without Brussels interfering.<br />3. I said controlled ( not necessarily reduced).<br />I'm all for immigration, just not uncontrolled.<br />4. I disagree, it was in theory but I feel the EU is a failed experiment. As the vote shows we Brits don't fit in. If we leave it will be interesting to see how it gets on without us.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-74013475311517053692019-09-30T14:17:39.832+01:002019-09-30T14:17:39.832+01:001. So spending more than we should do - sounds san...1. So spending more than we should do - sounds sane!?<br />2. Like what exactly?<br />3. I was under the impression we have some control even within the EU, but to be fair, what is wrong with immigration exactly? It is good for the economy.<br />4. Being in the EU is better overall as many people have pointed out.<br />But to be honest there is probably no point in trying to debate this is there.RevKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12369263214193333422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-71491689777525886512019-09-30T14:13:15.843+01:002019-09-30T14:13:15.843+01:001. The government departments can buy UK instead o...1. The government departments can buy UK instead of having to use the lowest bidder. A great deal of our manufacturing has been lost due to jobs going to lower cost countries in Europe. The overall cost should include lost tax receipts etc.<br />2. The ability to do what we consider best for The UK without breaking EU rules.<br />3. Controlled Immigration (not necessarily reduced).<br />4. Not paying into the EU to support all the countries that can't manage themselves due to being locked into the overvalued Euro.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-46021361834897922762019-09-30T12:39:27.871+01:002019-09-30T12:39:27.871+01:00With regard to the public being misled in the run ...With regard to the public being misled in the run up to the vote, have you ever compared any election manifesto to what actually happens. Lying to the public is standard practice to most politicians. All's fair in election promises and war.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-47193139633065001772019-09-29T18:39:27.601+01:002019-09-29T18:39:27.601+01:00But to be fair, please state the positives - the a...But to be fair, please state the positives - the advantages in leaving, so I understand.RevKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12369263214193333422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-85614655243930822912019-09-29T18:38:38.848+01:002019-09-29T18:38:38.848+01:00Not sure I follow all of that, sorry. Are you sayi...Not sure I follow all of that, sorry. Are you saying importing components will be better with brexit? (tariff, and value of pound). I am not sure that is valid to be honest. It seems leading economists disagree. But the truth will be in what happens, I am sure.RevKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12369263214193333422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-37620619956118533492019-09-29T17:45:20.988+01:002019-09-29T17:45:20.988+01:00We seem to be using different meanings of the word...We seem to be using different meanings of the word "need" here, since you seem to be using it to cover things that might be nice to get in future but don't currently have (like a trade deal with China, or the other 100+ countries in that category, with whom we trade just fine apart from paying a levy to Brussels on those imports). As for the amended "point", I'd point out the lower import tariffs from the 100+ countries we have no deal with at present are surely at least a minor benefit in itself? (CPUs are at 0%, but I seem to recall some other electronic components are not, so if you get parts other than CPUs from China those will probably drop in cost.)<br /><br />I'm still waiting to hear about any "risks" besides the mixed blessing of a change in tariffs: you say you're afraid of something, but what? Just a change in tariffs?<br /><br />Personally there was a very long list of factors in my voting choice, more about negatives to continued membership than positives to leaving, and I don't agree with much if any of May's reign of error: if I had any say in it, we'd be on a quite different course. I'm not "afraid" or calling the transition date "doomsday" though, because that seems silly - and I've seen nothing at all to validate that sort of talk. I'll probably try writing some of this up to share at some point, but I'm a little burned out right now after going through the process to get my wife the very expensive equivalent of the "pre-settled status" certain people whine about getting for free.jas88https://www.blogger.com/profile/05563592458314214904noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-10704955734759389182019-09-29T15:11:24.737+01:002019-09-29T15:11:24.737+01:00The referendum can be seen from both a legal and p...The referendum can be seen from both a legal and political point of view. Legally Adrian is quite correct - it was a non binding, advisory, poll. Hence the 50% cut off which would have been much higher had the original intent been to make it binding.<br /><br />However the government did put in a promise to implement the result - politically this did seem to bind the government but even that was not binding in any legal sense.<br /><br />Unfortunately the referendum did not mandate any approach to leaving - Eurosceptics had been arguing about this for years without any agreement and this was fairly skilfully glossed over by the Leave campaign but this legacy persists and underpins a lot of the present difficulty.<br /><br />I think anyone who voted Remain - as I did - has just as much cause for anger as those who voted Leave, we have been utterly ignored - at least the government has actually tried to implement Brexit (whatever the gutter press would have you believe). Brexit has then been sabotaged by the ERG, not "Remainers" or "Remainer MPs".<br /><br />If you want that "promise" to be honoured then, I'm afraid, *you* as a Leaver have to honour all the promises that Leave made - a "great deal" to smooth our transition out of the EU and replace *all* of the benefits of membership, preservation of the rights of EU citizens living in the UK, no impact on Northern Ireland - I could go on.<br /><br />All of these have been thrown by the wayside, lip service is given to wanting a deal but it is clear the government isn't even trying - which rather suggests they don't really want one.<br /><br />If the promises made by the Leave campaign cannot be honoured, then we shouldn't be doing Brexit, pure and simple.nowtotallyhackedoffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06687184924812362495noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-45914257200465135242019-09-29T07:19:23.528+01:002019-09-29T07:19:23.528+01:00Oh, and while you are here, I appreciate I am bein...Oh, and while you are here, I appreciate I am being a bit negative, highlighting (correctly) some of the risks of leaving, but can you clarify one of the actual benefits of leaving so we can understand how they offset even these minor risks?RevKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12369263214193333422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-8636336069394154692019-09-29T07:18:21.339+01:002019-09-29T07:18:21.339+01:00Unfortunately, by picking a bad specific example, ...Unfortunately, by picking a bad specific example, I have made it sound like the point I was making is not valid. Thank you for clarifying the details. I'll try to be more careful in future.<br /><br />The point I was trying to make was simple. My friend assumed that trade with non-EU countries would be simply unaffected by Brexit. I pointed out that we trade with those non-EU countries as the EU now and Brexit means trading as the UK, so new trade agreements will be needed and there is an impact. That is all I was trying to say, and I am sorry if that was not clear.<br /><br />You have added a lot more detail and confirmed that my point is valid. You have confirmed new trade agreements are needed, and that many are in place already. You have even confirmed that there could be tariffs in some cases which makes my point very nicely. Thank you.<br /><br />It is quite likely that for the products we make there are already new agreements in place and no tariffs. As such, apart from the pound tanking, we would not have a problem getting parts for our products due to trade agreements changing.<br /><br />However, the assumption that trade with non-EU countries is unaffected by Brexit was a wrong assumption to make and a valid comment.RevKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12369263214193333422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-62775758307242285012019-09-28T21:59:16.893+01:002019-09-28T21:59:16.893+01:00Yes, we lose some of the tariff exemptions and sim...Yes, we lose some of the tariff exemptions and similar benefits on *some* countries (while most are unchanged) - but when your only example turns out to be both wrong and exaggerated, it's not very convincing. Yes, we've extended the existing deals with 38 of the c 70 countries already, and there are people working on the others (except Canada, who benefit financially from a short-term delay, and Turkey, who aren't allowed to sign trade deals).<br /><br />Your original line was that trade with China would stop, because "have to have the trade agreement to import those parts". Obviously entirely untrue. I'm not sure what you mean this time about some trade being "frustrated"; yes, the c 32 countries not already covered will be *affected*, because tariffs will start to apply where they don't at present - in fact, their situation will become that of China, the arrangement you mistook for being a trade deal already. Is that really such a scary proposition for you?<br /><br />"I'm scared about a bunch of things, but the only one I'll identify for you is my fear of 'losing' something that we haven't actually got anyway"? I find it a little telling that so many of the Remain arguments just collapse under the slightest scrutiny...jas88https://www.blogger.com/profile/05563592458314214904noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-6739261883856704642019-09-28T11:57:37.675+01:002019-09-28T11:57:37.675+01:00Btw I never understood the establishment argument....Btw I never understood the establishment argument. The people mostly in favour right now are the conservative party.. the sitting government and pretty much the definition of establishment.Tony Hoylehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06485210895681350152noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-21247627626852191322019-09-28T11:55:39.152+01:002019-09-28T11:55:39.152+01:00If nobody has changed their minds there's now ...If nobody has changed their minds there's now a majority for remaining because of older people dying and younger people gaining the vote (haven't done the numbers but apparently that switchover happened fairly recently).<br /><br />Of course it's more complex and a number of people *have* changed their minds so it might be a good idea to ask them to inform policy.Tony Hoylehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06485210895681350152noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-43132247450634708222019-09-28T07:29:24.009+01:002019-09-28T07:29:24.009+01:00Whats I mean is the EU has trade agreements with o...Whats I mean is the EU has trade agreements with other countries. Maybe China is a bad example. But when not part of EU we are quite suddenly not a part of those existing EU trade agreements, and we have to make new trade agreements with such places. According to the BBC So far, the UK has signed 13 "continuity" deals covering 38 countries or territories so far. That is a good start. Without such deals, even a "free trade or 0% tariff" trade is frustrated, and trade deals are more than just about tariff - there are issues over the quality and safety of goods as well.<br /><br />My point is that assuming "because we trade with non EU country X at present, that will just carry on when we leave" is a very dangerous assumption.RevKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12369263214193333422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-59551783841874957312019-09-27T22:41:16.092+01:002019-09-27T22:41:16.092+01:00"So when we Brexit, we (UK) have to have the ..."So when we Brexit, we (UK) have to have the trade agreement to import those parts to UK (not EU). Is that in place? - well I don't think so, even after many years."<br /><br />Er, where on earth did all that come from? You think we'll have to stop trading with China if we don't get a "trade deal" before the end of next month? Or indeed the EU27? Seriously? This is the first time I've seen anyone with that interpretation of the relevant bits of international law.<br /><br />(Reality: right now the EU doesn't have a preferential trade deal in place with China either, so your CPUs from China come in on standard "rest of world" terms anyway ... which happen to be a 0% tariff. How do you expect that to change?)<br /><br />What are you really "scared" of? What do you expect to "cope" with, what "hardship"?<br /><br />Agree re Article 50 though, the extension process is too open-ended and revocation was bolted on through an oversight, much better to have a set deadline and require the Article 49 process to reverse later if necessary.jas88https://www.blogger.com/profile/05563592458314214904noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-30953671636716992792019-09-26T14:25:46.743+01:002019-09-26T14:25:46.743+01:00Do you really think anyone voted to leave the EU i...Do you really think anyone voted to leave the EU in order to get a blue passport? If so they don't deserve a vote, it is a pointless irrelevant thing to base a vote on.<br /><br />And more to the point: 1) it was the UK that suggested all EU passports should look the same, and 2) it's not mandatory so we can have blue passports in the EU anyway!Owen Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00890951742186614705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-13737381719338513872019-09-26T13:26:52.124+01:002019-09-26T13:26:52.124+01:00It is not tosh, it is what the Act of parliament, ...It is not tosh, it is what the Act of parliament, the law, making a referendum says, a "poll". It may have been "politically" binding on Cameron's government in a sort of way, but even that died with him resigning. A "written undertaking" by a political party is not legally "binding" is it. It was a "poll", simple as that!RevKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12369263214193333422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-18311499376224915482019-09-26T13:12:29.754+01:002019-09-26T13:12:29.754+01:00Sorry Adrian, it's absolute tosh to pretend th...Sorry Adrian, it's absolute tosh to pretend that the referendum was merely a non binding opinion poll.<br /><br />As previously stated, the Government gave everyone a written undertaking that it would implement the result; it simply couldn't been clearer.<br /><br />Your Newspeak attempts to rewrite history are dangerous nonsense that strikes at the root of democracy.Gerryhttp://nourl.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-13093056834157676802019-09-26T11:02:48.838+01:002019-09-26T11:02:48.838+01:00I normally avoid talking about Brexit with techies...I normally avoid talking about Brexit with techies because they steer the conversation to a discussion of facts & evidence. Politics is the manipulation of opinion not fact and where topics are complicated as in Brexit, that's mostly via emotional arguments rather than factual ones. After decades of politicians and media more likely to highlight EU faults rather than strengths, remain was always going to be a hard sell.<br /><br />In voting, people mentally committed to a decision that they made and even if the evidence was overwhelmingly that they'd made a mistake, it's human nature to find reasons (even if they become incredibly obscure) to support that decision. This is the same reason that those who convict a person in court (both juries & prosecutors) normally continue to believe the accused's guilt even when new evidence makes it impossible.<br /><br />The current insistence on increasing the polarization of opinion by most politicians on both sides by language like "Surrender Act", "treason", etc. make its even harder to see how this could be resolved either way without decades of fighting long after something is implemented. I've got a great respect for those few politics who are consensus builders and negotiators but it doesn't make good media or social media content.Stevennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-92107564499265678282019-09-26T10:21:51.494+01:002019-09-26T10:21:51.494+01:00OK but we *DO* do that for general elections, ever...OK but we *DO* do that for general elections, every few years, already, and the referendum was an opinion poll anyway.RevKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12369263214193333422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3993498847203183398.post-20276364787646801302019-09-26T10:18:45.703+01:002019-09-26T10:18:45.703+01:00"If people voted for something without knowin..."If people voted for something without knowing what they were asking, surely that means, at the very least, asking again."<br /><br />The problem with this argument it is that it essentially requires that the outcome of every election or referendum be considered invalid unless it can be shown that the voters acted with perfect information. But no vote in history has ever been conducted with perfect information. If we are going to insist that votes be re-run every time some campaign promise or other turns out to be nonsense, we might as well give up on democracy altogether, because no vote will ever be allowed to stand unchallenged.InfiniteDissenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00463076301051295104noreply@blogger.com